Michael Burry’s analysis on hyperinflation, which appears to be on the way.

Eventually, people pour all their money into stocks, because nobody wants currency anymore. It’s a hot potato, and everybody is hankering to get rid of it. People who own stocks, bonds and commodities see the prices of their assets swell many times above what they could ever be valued at otherwise, because they become Noah’s arcs for all those drowning in the flood of fiat money.

The question is, what would happen to altcoins in the event of hyperinflation?

I assume that they would increase — their denominator would always be increasing — but perhaps commodities would be those best to own, since those may be the ones that evoke the most trust, thus becoming the “safe havens”.

Some interesting tips

Digital Fashion in game

Still looks relatively nerdy. It will be interesting to see how different blockchain networks and organisations look to bring girls into the space. Digital fashion is great — but perhaps it still lacks any context outside of video games — aside from some AR fashion week catwalks.

Perhaps one of the things that might bring girls into the space is the big fashion companies rolling out their catwalks in AR. Although even here, AR and VR are still really niche things — only a handfull of people that I know own some sort of VR headset. AR can be used with phones though, and so perhaps, there comes the opportunity to allow regular users like snap-chatters to try on fashion items.

This is what snapchat are doing — but this is still in its relatively early stages.

For these to become real “digital items”, and not snapchat filters — they have to look convincing, to the point where people stop wearing them as a joke, and start wearing them for vanity’s sake — or to genuinely try stuff on to see how it looks.

There is something wrong with having private sales

Retail can agree to token lockups. Access to the benefits of a capitalist system shouldn’t be curtailed to those who are already rich. If anything, that counteracts growth, because rich people get so rich, that they can’t spend their money fast enough, in rational ways.

At the end of the day, there are ways to do it. Furthermore, public investors usually exert far less control and force than private investors. Although they are perhaps less patient. However, if there is a token lockup, then there is no problem with this, whatsoever. Retail couldn’t sell their tokens, even if some of them got impatient.

More juice on Lukso

Keeping things in perspective

Moreover, without this clarity of perspective, it’s easy to get carried down the river of “ohh, ohh, ohh, imagine if I can afford that”, or “ohh, ohh, ohh, imagine what my family will think”, or “ohh, ohh, ohh, maybe I can start a non-profit!”. But these expectations just fill up to the future expectations that you might have — the more you get in unrealised profits, the bigger you can start to “dream”, without ever actually taking any profits. Then, when the inevitable downtrend comes, all those dreams come crashing down.

https://www.paradigm.xyz/How_To_Survive_A_Crypto_Cycle.pdf

Fred Ersham wrote an article about his experiences, surviving the 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2020+ bull cycles — a rare experience — and his main thesis is that, things get blown way out of proportion during bull cycles (and bear cycles), and so it’s important to build your house (be that an investment strategy, a crypto project, or other) on the rock. Because the tide will inevitably come, and only those who remained true to themselves were able to survive. And only those who remain true to themselves now, will survive.

That means that most or many people on your twitter feed will reap losses. If you believe their hype, if you get carried away down the river with it, then you can fall off the 100 foot fucking waterfall, with the rest of your savings, gone.

The least you can do is to make sure that, if the worst were to happen, and your investments nose-dived, that you would be able to take your knowledge that you had built up, take some capital that you had stored away, and pick up the pieces. You would come back stronger.

This is also what Fooo says in his article. You can make it all back. You can always make it all back. But it’s important that you have some left to play with. Without having any to play with, then you can’t make anything at all.

Bottom line — take some out — put it in gold. Keep it safe.

“But hey, why is crypto so volatile? I shouldn’t invest in that!”

It’s like trying to fit into a 400LB bathtub when you’re 500LB.

A nice way to sum it up

Interesting takeaway from Lark (talking about ETH miner revolt)

  • Eth 2.0 (proof-of-stake) coming perhaps in next few months — a lot sooner than many had thought (merged with Eth 1.0)
  • Miners are not investors — they usually sell when they are rewarded — this creates constant selling pressure
  • But without proof-of-work, there are no miners
  • The model is proof of stake — so the incentive model changes from

(mine + sell) → (buy + hold)

Here, finally economics is aligned with users → moreover, this could lead to bigger price spikes for big daddy eth

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